EDI Staging Environment
Hindcasts were generated for density of Gloeotrichia echinulata, a toxin-producing cyanobacterium, at a nearshore site (South Herrick Cove) in Lake Sunapee, NH, USA, from May-October in 2015 and 2016 using several different Bayesian state-space models as part of a Global Lake Ecological Observatory Network working group project (Lofton et al. 20XX). Hindcasts were produced for one-week to four-week forecast horizons. Models ranged in complexity from a random walk to dynamic linear models with up to two environmental covariates. A subset of the model meteorological driver data for calibration and hindcasting was downloaded from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS-2; https://ldas.gsfc.nasa.gov/nldas/) and the Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM; http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/) for Lake Sunapee, New Hampshire, USA. The model driver data derived from NLDAS-2 data are daily summaries of solar radiation on G. echinulata sampling days from 2009-2016. The model driver data derived from PRISM data are daily sums of precipitation on G. echinulata sampling days from 2009-2016. All other model driver data are also published on the Environmental Data Initiative repository and are specified in the Notes and Comments of this data publication. All code to import data, calibrate models, and generate and analyze hindcasts are available on Github at https://github.com/GLEON/Bayes_forecast_WG/tree/eco_apps_release.
EDI is a collaboration between the University of New Mexico and the University of Wisconsin – Madison, Center for Limnology:
